Previews
Valorant Oct 22 — Nov 1 · Brazil · 10 teams

VALORANT Game Changers Championship 2026 predictions: who will win and every team's title chances

G2 Gozen are the favourite at 27%, about one title in four, which still leaves 73% for everyone else. Team Liquid Brazil are the dark horse at 10%, despite ranking only fifth on strength, so you should not write them off.

The road to the trophy

Share of each stage in 20,000 runs
  1. G2 Gozen 27%
  2. Made in Brazil GC 19%
  3. Shopify Rebellion GOLD 15%
  4. KRÜ Blaze 13%
  5. Team Liquid Brazil 10%
  6. Gentle Mates GC 8%
  7. SK Nebula 7%
  8. FENNEL Female 1%
  9. Other 2 teams 0%

At the start all 10 teams are equal. Stage by stage the field narrows — and even at the end the favourite holds only 27% of the trophy.

Playoffs: the match that decides it and the opening round

There is only one stage here, and it is the Playoffs. Ten teams, October 22 to November 1, and no group stage to soften an early mistake. That shapes how you read the preview below.

We ran 20,000 simulations of the event. The result is a field with a clear leader and a long tail. Eight teams carry a title chance of 1% or more, and the rest of the field rounds to 0%. If your team is in that tail, the odds are thin. If it is in the top five, you have a real path.

The match that decides it · Oct 22 · Bo3
23%
FENNEL Female
vs
77%
Made in Brazil GC

The winner nearly doubles their title chances.

Upset watch
58% Team Liquid Brazil

Team Liquid Brazil are No. 5 in our ranking, yet miss the semis in 58% of runs.

Opening round · October 22 — October 23
  1. Oct 22 · Bo3 Decides it
    Made in Brazil GC 77% FENNEL Female 23%
  2. Oct 22 · Bo3
    SK Nebula 77% Nova Esports GC 23%
  3. Oct 23 · Bo3
    Team Liquid Brazil 52% Gentle Mates GC 48%
  4. Oct 23 · Bo3
    KRÜ Blaze 77% Gen.G GC 23%

The most likely final

The most likely final is Made in Brazil GC against G2 Gozen. It appeared in 13% of runs, about one in 8. That makes it the single most common pairing, yet it still did not happen in roughly seven runs out of eight.

So do not pencil it in. The favourite and the second-strongest side can meet, but the bracket is open enough that other finals come up far more often when you add them together. Treat this pairing as the best single guess, not as the expected ending.

Made in Brazil GC
13%
of runs
G2 Gozen
About 1 final in 8

It happened in 13% of runs — about one final in 8.

Title chances

G2 Gozen hold the largest share of the trophy at 27%. That is about one title in four, and it means they lose the event nearly three times out of four.

The dark horse is Team Liquid Brazil. They are ranked fifth on strength but win the title in 10% of simulations, roughly one run in ten. That is a gap you can believe in if they survive the opening rounds. The trophy has a clear favourite, and a crowded field behind it. Expect the run to be decided by a few matches, not by the ranking.

27%
Favourite · G2 Gozen

The best chance in the bracket. And still, in 73% of runs someone else lifts the trophy.

  1. G2 Gozen 27%
  2. Made in Brazil GC 19%
  3. Shopify Rebellion GOLD 15%
  4. KRÜ Blaze 13%
  5. Team Liquid Brazil 10%
  6. Gentle Mates GC 8%
  7. SK Nebula 7%
  8. FENNEL Female 1%
  9. Other 2 teams 0%

Team by team

Each team's road: the chance to reach every stage.

G2 Gozen at VALORANT Game Changers Championship 2026: chances, path, next match

75% 49% 27%

The wall: Made in Brazil GC.

Made in Brazil GC at VALORANT Game Changers Championship 2026: chances, path, next match

62% 34% 19%

The wall: G2 Gozen. Key day: Thursday, October 22, against FENNEL Female.

Beat FENNEL Female and Made in Brazil GC are in the semis.

Shopify Rebellion GOLD at VALORANT Game Changers Championship 2026: chances, path, next match

56% 30% 15%

The wall: Team Liquid Brazil.

KRÜ Blaze at VALORANT Game Changers Championship 2026: chances, path, next match

52% 25% 13%

The wall: G2 Gozen. Key day: Friday, October 23, against Gen.G GC.

Win the opener and semi-final chances jump from 52% to 58%.

Team Liquid Brazil at VALORANT Game Changers Championship 2026: chances, path, next match

42% 21% 10%

The wall: Shopify Rebellion GOLD. Key day: Friday, October 23, against Gentle Mates GC.

Win the opener and semi-final chances jump from 42% to 65%.

Gentle Mates GC at VALORANT Game Changers Championship 2026: chances, path, next match

37% 18% 8%

The wall: Shopify Rebellion GOLD. Key day: Friday, October 23, against Team Liquid Brazil.

Win the opener and semi-final chances jump from 37% to 63%.

SK Nebula at VALORANT Game Changers Championship 2026: chances, path, next match

38% 16% 7%

The wall: Gentle Mates GC. Key day: Thursday, October 22, against Nova Esports GC.

Beat Nova Esports GC and SK Nebula are in the semis.

FENNEL Female at VALORANT Game Changers Championship 2026: chances, path, next match

22% 4% 1%

The wall: KRÜ Blaze. Key day: Thursday, October 22, against Made in Brazil GC.

Beat Made in Brazil GC and FENNEL Female are in the semis.

Show all 10 teams

Gen.G GC at VALORANT Game Changers Championship 2026: chances, path, next match

8% 1% 0%

The wall: Nova Esports GC. Key day: Friday, October 23, against KRÜ Blaze.

Win the opener and semi-final chances jump from 8% to 17%.

Nova Esports GC at VALORANT Game Changers Championship 2026: chances, path, next match

8% 1% 0%

The wall: Gen.G GC. Key day: Thursday, October 22, against SK Nebula.

Beat SK Nebula and Nova Esports GC are in the semis.

How we calculated

We play the tournament 20,000 times, match by match, through its real format. Each match is decided by our team ratings and market data, with Bo1, Bo3 and Bo5 treated differently. A team's chance is the share of those runs it wins.

Alexander Heathrow Alexander Heathrow Co-founder · Oct 19
All 10 teams
  • G2 Gozen
  • Made in Brazil GC
  • KRÜ Blaze
  • Shopify Rebellion GOLD
  • Team Liquid Brazil
  • Gentle Mates GC
  • SK Nebula
  • FENNEL Female
  • Gen.G GC
  • Nova Esports GC
Live this week
Try Ensitics free.

One free pick a day — see the model's call before the match.

Get Started — Free