Previews
CS2 Oct 24 · Romania · 16 teams

PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 predictions: who will win and every team's title chances

Team Vitality win PGL Masters Bucharest in 38% of our 20,000 simulations, yet that still leaves 62% for everyone else. The dark horse is FURIA Esports: fifth by strength, but 8% to lift the trophy, a bit better than one run in thirteen.

The road to the trophy

Share of each stage in 20,000 runs
  1. Team Vitality 38%
  2. Team Spirit 23%
  3. MOUZ 11%
  4. FURIA Esports 8%
  5. Aurora Gaming 6%
  6. FUT Esports 4%
  7. Legacy 3%
  8. Natus Vincere 3%
  9. Other 8 teams 5%

At the start all 16 teams are equal. Stage by stage the field narrows — and even at the end the favourite holds only 38% of the trophy.

Group stage: the match that decides it, Pick'Em and the opening round

The match that decides it · Oct 24 · Bo3
86%
Team Vitality
vs
14%
9z Team

The winner's title chances go up by 1%.

Upset watch
44% Aurora Gaming

Aurora Gaming are No. 4 in our ranking, yet miss the playoffs in 44% of runs.

Opening round · October 24
  1. Oct 24 · Bo3
    Aurora Gaming 73% The Mongolz 27%
  2. Oct 24 · Bo3
    FUT Esports 78% TyLoo 22%
  3. Oct 24 · Bo3
    Team Spirit 78% BetBoom 22%
  4. Oct 24 · Bo3
    MOUZ 85% Team Liquid 15%
  5. Oct 24 · Bo3 Decides it
    Team Vitality 86% 9z Team 14%
  6. Oct 24 · Bo3
    Legacy 69% Nemiga Gaming 31%
  7. Oct 24 · Bo3
    Natus Vincere 55% G2 Esports 45%
  8. Oct 24 · Bo3
    FURIA Esports 83% DENDELE CS 17%
Pick'Em · Group stage
3-0 Go 3-0
  • Team Vitality Team Vitality 36%
  • Team Spirit Team Spirit 22%
Adv Advance
  • MOUZ MOUZ 67%
  • FURIA Esports FURIA Esports 64%
  • FUT Esports FUT Esports 58%
  • Aurora Gaming Aurora Gaming 56%
  • Natus Vincere Natus Vincere 54%
  • Legacy Legacy 52%
0-3 Go 0-3
  • DENDELE CS DENDELE CS 27%
  • 9z Team 9z Team 25%

Who reaches the playoffs

The Playoffs are where the simulations get unkind to the seedings. Aurora Gaming rank fourth by strength, yet they miss the playoffs entirely in 44% of runs. That is nearly one run in two for a team the ratings like. A good rating does not buy you a bracket spot.

For Vitality, the bracket is a gauntlet rather than a coronation. They are the favourite at 38%, but they still need to survive single matches against sides that have already survived the Group stage. FURIA Esports, at 8%, are the kind of team that benefits from this. Fifth by strength, they only need a soft draw and one hot series. MOUZ at 11% sit in the same neighbourhood of live outsiders.

  1. Team Vitality 88%
  2. Team Spirit 79%
  3. MOUZ 67%
  4. FURIA Esports 64%
  5. Aurora Gaming 56%
  6. FUT Esports 58%
  7. Legacy 52%
  8. Natus Vincere 54%
Dark horse
8%
FURIA Esports

8% to lift the trophy.

The most likely final

Team Spirit
13%
of runs
Team Vitality
About 1 final in 8

It happened in 13% of runs — about one final in 8.

Title chances

38%
Favourite · Team Vitality

The best chance in the bracket. And still, in 62% of runs someone else lifts the trophy.

  1. Team Vitality 38%
  2. Team Spirit 23%
  3. MOUZ 11%
  4. FURIA Esports 8%
  5. Aurora Gaming 6%
  6. FUT Esports 4%
  7. Legacy 3%
  8. Natus Vincere 3%
  9. Other 8 teams 5%

Team by team

Each team's road: the chance to reach every stage.

Team Vitality at PGL Masters Bucharest 2026: chances, path, next match

88% 50% 38%

The wall: Team Spirit. Key day: Saturday, October 24, against 9z Team.

Win the opener and playoff chances jump from 88% to 91%.

Team Spirit at PGL Masters Bucharest 2026: chances, path, next match

79% 37% 23%

The wall: Team Vitality. Key day: Saturday, October 24, against BetBoom.

Win the opener and playoff chances jump from 79% to 84%.

MOUZ at PGL Masters Bucharest 2026: chances, path, next match

67% 23% 11%

The wall: Team Vitality. Key day: Saturday, October 24, against Team Liquid.

Win the opener and playoff chances jump from 67% to 71%.

FURIA Esports at PGL Masters Bucharest 2026: chances, path, next match

64% 18% 8%

The wall: Team Vitality. Key day: Saturday, October 24, against DENDELE CS.

Win the opener and playoff chances jump from 64% to 70%.

Aurora Gaming at PGL Masters Bucharest 2026: chances, path, next match

56% 15% 6%

The wall: Team Vitality. Key day: Saturday, October 24, against The Mongolz.

Win the opener and playoff chances jump from 56% to 64%.

FUT Esports at PGL Masters Bucharest 2026: chances, path, next match

58% 13% 4%

The wall: Team Vitality. Key day: Saturday, October 24, against TyLoo.

Win the opener and playoff chances jump from 58% to 66%.

Legacy at PGL Masters Bucharest 2026: chances, path, next match

52% 10% 3%

The wall: Team Vitality. Key day: Saturday, October 24, against Nemiga Gaming.

Win the opener and playoff chances jump from 52% to 63%.

Natus Vincere at PGL Masters Bucharest 2026: chances, path, next match

54% 10% 3%

The wall: Team Vitality. Key day: Saturday, October 24, against G2 Esports.

Win the opener and playoff chances jump from 54% to 71%.

Show all 16 teams

G2 Esports at PGL Masters Bucharest 2026: chances, path, next match

48% 7% 2%

The wall: Team Vitality. Key day: Saturday, October 24, against Natus Vincere.

Win the opener and playoff chances jump from 48% to 69%.

BetBoom at PGL Masters Bucharest 2026: chances, path, next match

43% 6% 1%

The wall: Team Vitality. Key day: Saturday, October 24, against Team Spirit.

Win the opener and playoff chances jump from 43% to 71%.

9z Team at PGL Masters Bucharest 2026: chances, path, next match

30% 3% 1%

The wall: Natus Vincere. Key day: Saturday, October 24, against Team Vitality.

Win the opener and playoff chances jump from 30% to 61%.

The Mongolz at PGL Masters Bucharest 2026: chances, path, next match

41% 4% 1%

The wall: Natus Vincere. Key day: Saturday, October 24, against Aurora Gaming.

Win the opener and playoff chances jump from 41% to 66%.

Nemiga Gaming at PGL Masters Bucharest 2026: chances, path, next match

42% 3% 0%

The wall: TyLoo. Key day: Saturday, October 24, against Legacy.

Win the opener and playoff chances jump from 42% to 62%.

Team Liquid at PGL Masters Bucharest 2026: chances, path, next match

26% 1% 0%

The wall: DENDELE CS. Key day: Saturday, October 24, against MOUZ.

Win the opener and playoff chances jump from 26% to 52%.

TyLoo at PGL Masters Bucharest 2026: chances, path, next match

29% 1% 0%

The wall: Team Liquid. Key day: Saturday, October 24, against FUT Esports.

Win the opener and playoff chances jump from 29% to 52%.

DENDELE CS at PGL Masters Bucharest 2026: chances, path, next match

24% 1% 0%

The wall: Nemiga Gaming. Key day: Saturday, October 24, against FURIA Esports.

Win the opener and playoff chances jump from 24% to 48%.

How we calculated

We play the tournament 20,000 times, match by match, through its real format. Each match is decided by our team ratings and market data, with Bo1, Bo3 and Bo5 treated differently. A team's chance is the share of those runs it wins.

Alexander Heathrow Alexander Heathrow Co-founder · Oct 19
All 16 teams
  • Team Vitality
  • Team Spirit
  • MOUZ
  • Aurora Gaming
  • FURIA Esports
  • FUT Esports
  • Legacy
  • Natus Vincere
  • G2 Esports
  • BetBoom
  • 9z Team
  • The Mongolz
  • Nemiga Gaming
  • Team Liquid
  • TyLoo
  • DENDELE CS
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