Previews
Dota 2 Oct 22 — Nov 1 · 10 teams

PARI Universe 2026 predictions: who will win and every team's title chances

Team Yandex hold a 48% title chance at PARI Universe, yet that still leaves 52% for everyone else. The dark horse is 1w Team: fifth by strength, 1% to win it all, and about one run in a hundred.

The road to the trophy

Share of each stage in 20,000 runs
  1. Team Yandex 48%
  2. PARIVISION 32%
  3. Team Spirit 15%
  4. Team Liquid 3%
  5. 1w Team 1%
  6. BetBoom Team 0%
  7. OG 0%
  8. GamerLegion 0%
  9. Other 2 teams 0%

At the start all 10 teams are equal. Stage by stage the field narrows — and even at the end the favourite holds only 48% of the trophy.

Group stage: the opening round

Upset watch
45% 1w Team

1w Team are No. 5 in our ranking, yet miss the playoffs in 45% of runs.

Opening round · October 22
  1. Oct 22 · Bo3
    Team Yandex 90% GamerLegion 10%
  2. Oct 22 · Bo3
    Team Spirit 95% LEGION 5%
  3. Oct 22 · Bo3
    Team Liquid 62% 1w Team 38%
  4. Oct 22 · Bo3
    PARIVISION 95% Astra Invicta 5%

Who reaches the playoffs

5 teams make the playoffs. Team Yandex get there in 97% of runs. 1w Team, No. 5 in our ranking, miss out in 45%.

  1. Team Yandex 97%
  2. PARIVISION 89%
  3. Team Spirit 80%
  4. Team Liquid 74%
  5. 1w Team 55%
  6. BetBoom Team 26%
  7. OG 39%
  8. GamerLegion 34%
Dark horse
1%
1w Team

1% to lift the trophy.

The most likely final

The most common final in our 20,000 runs is Team Yandex against PARIVISION. It shows up in 40% of simulations, about one run in 3. Put another way, you should expect that pairing more often than any other, yet it still misses in most runs.

That is the useful correction. The favourite pair is likely, not settled. In three runs out of five, the final looks different, and Team Spirit at 15% are the obvious team to break it. If Team Yandex do get there, they face the one side with a 32% title chance, so even the matchup everyone expects is a real contest, not a formality.

Team Yandex
40%
of runs
PARIVISION
About 1 final in 3

It happened in 40% of runs — about one final in 3.

Title chances

Team Yandex are the favourites for the trophy at 48%. Fans of the team can take that as a good position, not a done deal: 52% of runs end with someone else lifting it. PARIVISION at 32% and Team Spirit at 15% take most of that remainder.

Then comes the dark horse. 1w Team rank fifth by strength and win the title in 1% of runs, which is about one tournament in a hundred. That is a long shot, but it is a long shot with a seed behind it, higher than the 0% teams below. Team Liquid at 3% are the next most plausible surprise. Beyond that, the rest of the field totals 1%.

48%
Favourite · Team Yandex

The best chance in the bracket. And still, in 52% of runs someone else lifts the trophy.

  1. Team Yandex 48%
  2. PARIVISION 32%
  3. Team Spirit 15%
  4. Team Liquid 3%
  5. 1w Team 1%
  6. BetBoom Team 0%
  7. OG 0%
  8. GamerLegion 0%
  9. Other 2 teams 0%

Team by team

Each team's road: the chance to reach every stage.

Team Yandex at PARI Universe 2026: chances, path, next match

97% 75% 48%

The wall: PARIVISION. Key day: Thursday, October 22, against GamerLegion.

Win the opener and playoff chances jump from 97% to 98%.

PARIVISION at PARI Universe 2026: chances, path, next match

89% 61% 32%

The wall: Team Yandex. Key day: Thursday, October 22, against Astra Invicta.

Win the opener and playoff chances jump from 89% to 90%.

Team Spirit at PARI Universe 2026: chances, path, next match

80% 39% 15%

The wall: Team Yandex. Key day: Thursday, October 22, against LEGION.

Win the opener and playoff chances jump from 80% to 82%.

Team Liquid at PARI Universe 2026: chances, path, next match

74% 14% 3%

The wall: Team Yandex. Key day: Thursday, October 22, against 1w Team.

Win the opener and playoff chances jump from 74% to 88%.

1w Team at PARI Universe 2026: chances, path, next match

55% 5% 1%

The wall: Team Yandex. Key day: Thursday, October 22, against Team Liquid.

Win the opener and playoff chances jump from 55% to 80%.

BetBoom Team at PARI Universe 2026: chances, path, next match

26% 3% 0%

Key day: Friday, October 23, against Astra Invicta.

Win the opener and playoff chances jump from 26% to 31%.

OG at PARI Universe 2026: chances, path, next match

39% 2% 0%

Key day: Friday, October 23, against 1w Team.

Win the opener and playoff chances jump from 39% to 66%.

GamerLegion at PARI Universe 2026: chances, path, next match

34% 1% 0%

Key day: Thursday, October 22, against Team Yandex.

Win the opener and playoff chances jump from 34% to 65%.

Show all 10 teams

Astra Invicta at PARI Universe 2026: chances, path, next match

4% 0% 0%

Key day: Thursday, October 22, against PARIVISION.

Win the opener and playoff chances jump from 4% to 22%.

LEGION at PARI Universe 2026: chances, path, next match

2% 0% 0%

Key day: Thursday, October 22, against Team Spirit.

Win the opener and playoff chances jump from 2% to 16%.

How we calculated

We play the tournament 20,000 times, match by match, through its real format. Each match is decided by our team ratings and market data, with Bo1, Bo3 and Bo5 treated differently. A team's chance is the share of those runs it wins.

Alexander Heathrow Alexander Heathrow Co-founder · Oct 19
All 10 teams
  • Team Yandex
  • PARIVISION
  • Team Spirit
  • Team Liquid
  • 1w Team
  • BetBoom Team
  • OG
  • GamerLegion
  • Astra Invicta
  • LEGION
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