Previews
CS2 Nov 11 — Nov 12 · 8 teams

BLAST Rivals Fall 2026 predictions: who will win and every team's title chances

Team Vitality are the favourites: they lift the trophy in 52% of our 20,000 simulations. The dark horse is FURIA Esports at 20%.

The road to the trophy

Share of each stage in 20,000 runs
  1. Team Vitality 52%
  2. Team Falcons 20%
  3. FURIA Esports 20%
  4. Legacy 8%
  5. Team Spirit 0%
  6. MOUZ 0%
  7. FUT Esports 0%
  8. G2 Esports 0%

At the start all 8 teams are equal. Stage by stage the field narrows — and even at the end the favourite holds only 52% of the trophy.

Group stage: the match that decides it and the opening round

The match that decides it · Nov 11 · Bo3
68%
Team Vitality
vs
32%
Team Falcons

The winner nearly doubles their title chances.

Upset watch
61% FUT Esports

FUT Esports are No. 5 in our ranking, yet miss the semis in 61% of runs.

Opening round · November 11
  1. Nov 11 · Bo3
    FURIA Esports 63% Legacy 37%
  2. Nov 11 · Bo3 Decides it
    Team Vitality 68% Team Falcons 32%
  3. Nov 11 · Bo3
    Team Spirit 67% FUT Esports 33%
  4. Nov 11 · Bo3
    MOUZ 74% G2 Esports 26%

The most likely final

Team Vitality
23%
of runs
Team Spirit
About 1 final in 4

It happened in 23% of runs — about one final in 4.

Title chances

52%
Favourite · Team Vitality

The best chance in the bracket. And still, in 48% of runs someone else lifts the trophy.

  1. Team Vitality 52%
  2. Team Falcons 20%
  3. FURIA Esports 20%
  4. Legacy 8%
  5. Team Spirit 0%
  6. MOUZ 0%
  7. FUT Esports 0%
  8. G2 Esports 0%

Team by team

Each team's road: the chance to reach every stage.

Team Vitality at BLAST Rivals Fall 2026: chances, path, next match

83% 52% 52%

The wall: Team Falcons. Key day: Wednesday, November 11, against Team Falcons.

Win the opener and semi-final chances jump from 83% to 94%.

Team Falcons at BLAST Rivals Fall 2026: chances, path, next match

49% 20% 20%

The wall: FURIA Esports. Key day: Wednesday, November 11, against Team Vitality.

Win the opener and semi-final chances jump from 49% to 76%.

FURIA Esports at BLAST Rivals Fall 2026: chances, path, next match

47% 20% 20%

The wall: Team Falcons. Key day: Wednesday, November 11, against Legacy.

Win the opener and semi-final chances jump from 47% to 62%.

Legacy at BLAST Rivals Fall 2026: chances, path, next match

22% 8% 8%

The wall: Team Falcons. Key day: Wednesday, November 11, against FURIA Esports.

Win the opener and semi-final chances jump from 22% to 44%.

Team Spirit at BLAST Rivals Fall 2026: chances, path, next match

77% 43% 0%

Key day: Wednesday, November 11, against FUT Esports.

Win the opener and semi-final chances jump from 77% to 89%.

MOUZ at BLAST Rivals Fall 2026: chances, path, next match

68% 36% 0%

The wall: FUT Esports. Key day: Wednesday, November 11, against G2 Esports.

Win the opener and semi-final chances jump from 68% to 79%.

FUT Esports at BLAST Rivals Fall 2026: chances, path, next match

39% 15% 0%

The wall: MOUZ. Key day: Wednesday, November 11, against Team Spirit.

Win the opener and semi-final chances jump from 39% to 68%.

G2 Esports at BLAST Rivals Fall 2026: chances, path, next match

17% 6% 0%

The wall: FUT Esports. Key day: Wednesday, November 11, against MOUZ.

Win the opener and semi-final chances jump from 17% to 44%.

How we calculated

We play the tournament 20,000 times, match by match, through its real format. Each match is decided by our team ratings and market data, with Bo1, Bo3 and Bo5 treated differently. A team's chance is the share of those runs it wins.

Alexander Heathrow Alexander Heathrow Co-founder · Oct 27
All 8 teams
  • Team Vitality
  • Team Spirit
  • MOUZ
  • Team Falcons
  • FUT Esports
  • FURIA Esports
  • Legacy
  • G2 Esports
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