BLAST Rivals Fall 2026 predictions: who will win and every team's title chances
Team Vitality wins BLAST Rivals Fall in 52% of our simulations, so the other seven teams share the remaining 48%. FURIA Esports is the dark horse. It ranks fifth on strength, yet it takes the title in 20% of runs, level with Team Falcons.
The road to the trophy
Share of each stage in 20,000 runs- 52% Team Vitality
- 20% Team Falcons
- 20% FURIA Esports
- 8% Legacy
- 0% Team Spirit
- 0% MOUZ
- 0% FUT Esports
- 0% G2 Esports
- 52% Team Vitality
- 20% Team Falcons
- 20% FURIA Esports
- 8% Legacy
- 0% Team Spirit
- 0% MOUZ
- 0% FUT Esports
- 0% G2 Esports
- Team Vitality 52%
- Team Falcons 20%
- FURIA Esports 20%
- Legacy 8%
- Team Spirit 0%
- MOUZ 0%
- FUT Esports 0%
- G2 Esports 0%
At the start all 8 teams are equal. Stage by stage the field narrows — and even at the end the favourite holds only 52% of the trophy.
Group stage: the match that decides it and the opening round
Eight teams, two days, November 11 and 12. FACTS list one stage only: the group stage. With so little room, a single bad map can decide a whole run, and our 20,000 simulations show that in the spread of outcomes.
The results are lopsided. Team Vitality leads, Team Falcons and FURIA Esports follow, and Legacy is the only other team with any title chance at 8%. Team Spirit, MOUZ, FUT Esports and G2 Esports all sit at 0%. If you back one of those four, the model gives you no route to the trophy. The group stage is where Vitality's lead has to hold first, and the match that tests it comes on day one: Team Vitality against Team Falcons on November 11.
The winner nearly doubles their title chances.
FURIA Esports are No. 5 in our ranking, yet miss the semis in 53% of runs.
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Nov 11 · Bo3FURIA Esports 63% Legacy 37%
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Nov 11 · Bo3 Decides itTeam Vitality 68% Team Falcons 32%
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Nov 11 · Bo3Team Spirit 68% FUT Esports 32%
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Nov 11 · Bo3MOUZ 73% G2 Esports 27%
The most likely final
The most common final in our runs is Team Vitality against Team Spirit. It appears in 23% of simulations, about one in four. That is the single likeliest pairing, and it still misses three times in four.
Notice the tension in the numbers. Spirit reaches that final often enough to be the most frequent opponent, yet its title chance is 0%. In our runs it gets there and does not win. Vitality is on the other side of the most likely final and also has the highest title chance, so a Vitality final appearance is the base case. Falcons and FURIA carry 20% each, and they can break the pattern by meeting Vitality earlier or by taking the final slot themselves. Treat the Vitality and Spirit final as the leading outcome, not the expected one.
It happened in 23% of runs — about one final in 4.
Title chances
Team Vitality holds the trophy in 52% of 20,000 simulations. That is a little better than one in two. It also means the title goes elsewhere in 48% of runs, so Vitality is the favourite without being the answer.
The challengers are specific. Team Falcons and FURIA Esports each win 20% of the time, about one in five. FURIA is the notable one, since it ranks fifth on strength and still matches Falcons. Legacy takes 8%. Team Spirit, MOUZ, FUT Esports and G2 Esports take none. The match that shapes this most is Team Vitality against Team Falcons on November 11. If Vitality wins it, the favourite's path looks clear. If Falcons wins, a large share of that 52% is up for grabs, and you should expect the title race to open up quickly.
The best chance in the bracket. And still, in 48% of runs someone else lifts the trophy.
- Team Vitality 52%
- Team Falcons 20%
- FURIA Esports 20%
- Legacy 8%
- Team Spirit 0%
- MOUZ 0%
- FUT Esports 0%
- G2 Esports 0%
Team by team
Each team's road: the chance to reach every stage.
Team Vitality at BLAST Rivals Fall 2026: chances, path, next match
83%
52%
52%
The wall: Team Falcons. Key day: Wednesday, November 11, against Team Falcons.
Win the opener and semi-final chances jump from 83% to 94%.
Team Falcons at BLAST Rivals Fall 2026: chances, path, next match
49%
20%
20%
The wall: FURIA Esports. Key day: Wednesday, November 11, against Team Vitality.
Win the opener and semi-final chances jump from 49% to 76%.
FURIA Esports at BLAST Rivals Fall 2026: chances, path, next match
47%
20%
20%
The wall: Team Falcons. Key day: Wednesday, November 11, against Legacy.
Win the opener and semi-final chances jump from 47% to 62%.
Legacy at BLAST Rivals Fall 2026: chances, path, next match
22%
8%
8%
The wall: Team Falcons. Key day: Wednesday, November 11, against FURIA Esports.
Win the opener and semi-final chances jump from 22% to 44%.
Team Spirit at BLAST Rivals Fall 2026: chances, path, next match
77%
44%
0%
Key day: Wednesday, November 11, against FUT Esports.
Win the opener and semi-final chances jump from 77% to 90%.
MOUZ at BLAST Rivals Fall 2026: chances, path, next match
67%
34%
0%
The wall: FUT Esports. Key day: Wednesday, November 11, against G2 Esports.
Win the opener and semi-final chances jump from 67% to 78%.
FUT Esports at BLAST Rivals Fall 2026: chances, path, next match
38%
15%
0%
The wall: MOUZ. Key day: Wednesday, November 11, against Team Spirit.
Win the opener and semi-final chances jump from 38% to 67%.
G2 Esports at BLAST Rivals Fall 2026: chances, path, next match
18%
7%
0%
The wall: FUT Esports. Key day: Wednesday, November 11, against MOUZ.
Win the opener and semi-final chances jump from 18% to 45%.
How we calculated
We play the tournament 20,000 times, match by match, through its real format. Each match is decided by our team ratings and market data, with Bo1, Bo3 and Bo5 treated differently. A team's chance is the share of those runs it wins.
Alexander Heathrow
Co-founder · Oct 27
All 8 teams
- Team Vitality
- Team Spirit
- MOUZ
- Team Falcons
- FURIA Esports
- FUT Esports
- Legacy
- G2 Esports
One free pick a day — see the model's call before the match.